Thursday 4 January 2018

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1.1         PRINCIPLES OF MANAGEMENT

1. What do you see as the main difference between a successful and an
unsuccessful decision? How much does luck versus skill have to do with it? Give
a detail note on it.

The ability to decide and choose wisely and rightly is often a matter of how the problem was posed. Though we try to be as logical as possible in taking a decision, sometimes we end up making illogical choices or choices that in fact were good but ended up with failure.

So, it is important to understand how people decide things to avoid bad judgments. Decision making refers to “making choices among alternative courses of action—which may also include inaction”. In order to make a wide range of decisions, individuals throughout organizations use the information they gather. These decisions will then change the course of an organization, as well affect their lives. Making successful decisions is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one.
Success may be defined as “the achievement of something desired, planned, or attempted”. In order a decision to be successful, a company should make sure that they make the best choice by going through the formal steps of the rational decision-making model. The rational decision-making model describes “a series of steps that decision makers should consider if their goal is to maximize the quality of their outcomes”.
This is the main difference between a successful and an unsuccessful decision; by not considering these decision-making models, a company’s goal can fail just because they do not go through the necessary steps which are: Identifying the problem, establishing decision criteria, weigh decision criteria, generate alternatives, evaluate the alternatives, choose the best alternative, implement the decision, and evaluate the decision (Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Model).
When it comes to luck and skills and their relation to success, I think there are two extremes: people who rely only on luck and other that think that everything depends solely on skills. I think that a middle ground has to be found and followed. For example, a company after making a certain decision must hope for the best as they already choose to go with that idea and work hard until they accomplish it. A successful decision has to do with both luck and skill, but also an illogical dumb idea/decision can lead to successful/beneficial outcome sometimes.
A company’s decision does not need to reach its final objective in order to understand if it will be successful or not. For example, an ice-cream factory that decided to make two million different ice-creams in order to sell them to their potential byers does not need to sell all the ice-creams in order to understand that his decision/goal has been successful, and to understand that his contribution will lead to profitable income; he only needs to look at the daily or weekly sales, and see if this number of sales is enough for the two million different ice-creams to be sold during the expect time.
An organized and systematic decision-making process usually leads to better successful decisions. Without a well-defined process, you risk making decisions that are based on insufficient information and analysis. Many variables affect the final impact of your decision. However, if you establish strong foundations for decision making, generate good alternatives, evaluate these alternatives rigorously, and then check your decision-making process, you will improve the quality of your decisions.
The decision-making process begins when a manager identifies the real problem. The accurate definition of the problem affects all the steps that follow; if the problem is inaccurately defined, every step in the decision-making process will be based on an incorrect starting point. One way that a manager can help determine the true problem in a situation is by identifying the problem separately from its symptoms.
The most obviously troubling situations found in an organization can usually be identified as symptoms of underlying problems. (See Table 1 for some examples of symptoms.) These symptoms all indicate that something is wrong with an organization, but they don’t identify root causes. A successful manager doesn’t just attack symptoms; he works to uncover the factors that cause these symptoms.
All managers want to make the best decisions. To do so, managers need to have the ideal resources — information, time, personnel, equipment, and supplies — and identify any limiting factors. Realistically, managers operate in an environment that normally doesn’t provide ideal resources. For example, they may lack the proper budget or may not have the most accurate information or any extra time. So, they must choose to satisfied — to make the best decision possible with the information, resources, and time available.
Develop potential alternatives
Time pressures frequently cause a manager to move forward after considering only the first or most obvious answers. However, successful problem solving requires thorough examination of the challenge, and a quick answer may not result in a permanent solution. Thus, a manager should think through and investigate several alternative solutions to a single problem before making a quick decision.
One of the best known methods for developing alternatives is through brainstorming, where a group works together to generate ideas and alternative solutions. The assumption behind brainstorming is that the group dynamic stimulates thinking — one person’s ideas, no matter how outrageous, can generate ideas from the others in the group. Ideally, this spawning of ideas is contagious, and before long, lots of suggestions and ideas flow. Brainstorming usually requires 30 minutes to an hour. The following specific rules should be followed during brainstorming sessions:
Concentrate on the problem at hand. This rule keeps the discussion very specific and avoids the group’s tendency to address the events leading up to the current problem.
Entertain all ideas. In fact, the more ideas that come up, the better. In other words, there are no bad ideas. Encouragement of the group to freely offer all thoughts on the subject is important. Participants should be encouraged to present ideas no matter how ridiculous they seem, because such ideas may spark a creative thought on the part of someone else.
Refrain from allowing members to evaluate others’ ideas on the spot. All judgments should be deferred until all thoughts are presented, and the group concurs on the best ideas.
Although brainstorming is the most common technique to develop alternative solutions, managers can use several other ways to help develop solutions. Here are some examples:
Nominal group technique. This method involves the use of a highly structured meeting, complete with an agenda, and restricts discussion or interpersonal communication during the decision-making process. This technique is useful because it ensures that every group member has equal input in the decision-making process. It also avoids some of the pitfalls, such as pressure to conform, group dominance, hostility, and conflict, that can plague a more interactive, spontaneous, unstructured forum such as brainstorming.
Delphi technique. With this technique, participants never meet, but a group leader uses written questionnaires to conduct the decision making.

In order to be successful taking risk in the markets, you must understand the role of luck and skill. From that understanding, there will be several implications for your actions and how you invest and trade.
Markets are fascinating, complex, multi-part puzzles that are constantly moving. Anything can happen. Surprises are frequent. That means that randomness and luck are omnipresent forces in the markets. I dealt with this in another post, Better Lucky Than Good. As anything can happen, we can’t put ourselves in a position where we are betting our entire account on one position.  For instance, think of an event like the Flash Crash in 2010—an extreme example, but one day like that could wipe you out. Furthermore, because luck is a constant factor, we need to adjust our own thinking and practice about investing to take luck into account.
One basic implication is that we won’t ever be right 100% of the time. Lots of things can go wrong with positions for numerous reasons, no matter how much research and preparation we have put in. As such, we should design our trading and investing strategies to reflect the fact that we can get it wrong sometimes. That means learning to manage the downside when have a losing position, which will probably happen a lot. In fact, most professional portfolio managers and traders have a win rate of around 50% over time, so they will often have to deal with losers.
Once we accept this fact, then we look at the markets differently. We learn that instead of trying to make money on every individual position, we need to have an approach that accepts the fact that we could lose money on any individual position. The latter is the outcome and because there is an element of chance in the markets, we can never really control or determine the outcome. Rather, what we can control is the process itself, and that is where we should direct our efforts. Moreover, if we get the process right and never leave ourselves too exposed to a single event undermining us, then the outcomes will work out favorably. By focusing on our process, we are cultivating skill.
The most common way of evaluating trades is on whether or not they made money. But this doesn’t tell us if we made money because we got lucky or because it was the right decision. This is just focusing on the outcome. When describing the results of positions, we should break them down into either winning trades (i.e. they made money) or losing trades (i.e. they lost money).  This classification system just tells us what happened. But we want to focus on the process, because that’s what we can control. Instead, I would sort them into good trades (i.e. ones that are consistent with your process) or bad trades (i.e. ones that are not consistent with your process). No matter what the outcome on any one position, you want to be putting on good trades which are disciplined and consistent with your process. The idea is that the results will take care of themselves over time.
For instance, if we estimate that a position has a 50/50 chance of being a winner, then the profit per winner just needs to be a bit higher than the loss per loser for you to make money long term. As your profit per winner grows relative to your loss per loser, then your required win rate goes down. If you make $6 on every winner and lose $1 on every loser, then you can be right only 25% of the time and still make a fortune. If a position has a positive statistical expectation, then the risk/reward makes sense—and putting it on is a good decision.
Now, that does not mean that every single position will make money. Rather, it means that over a sufficiently large sample size, i.e. a large enough number of positions, you will make money. As long as you consistently have favourable odds, then they will assert themselves over time.
Of course, you don’t always know the odds in advance. You can figure them out in several different ways. The first is through experience. If you’ve been using the same investing or trading strategy for twenty years, then you should have a good idea. You can draw on your records and analysis to determine the key variables, like your win rate or how much you make per winner.  The next way is historical back testing or research, where you have looked through data and seen how your strategy would have done in the past. This isn’t the same as actually using real money, but at least it gives you some idea. The third method is to construct a new methodology and to make educated guesses about what kind of returns it may deliver. This is the riskiest because it doesn’t have as much as grounding in experience or reality, but it could work if it’s difficult to back test or because market conditions have shifted rapidly over time. While you may be guessing, you still need to construct your strategy’s basic components in a way that leaves you positive statistical expectation.
As we have stated, you need positive statistical expectation to be profitable. But just how profitable you are will be determined by a few key variables. The first is win rate—how often a position is a winner or a loser. The second is how much you are making per winner. The third is how much you are losing per loser. Understanding these three variables, you can see how different styles work. In baseball parlance, some people try to hit “home runs”, focusing on big wins but not necessarily needing high win rate. Others try to hit base hits, focusing on a smaller average win size but trying to have a higher win rate. All of these can be successful, because they have one common attribute: positive statistical expectation.
Moreover, we can boost our overall expectation. Here is a simple diagram that shows how a couple of tweaks can dramatically change our results. And it is possible to make these tweaks. For instance, we could change our take profit policies on winners so that we hold them longer and make slightly more. That would boost our average winner and substantially boost our overall expectation. Similarly, we could boost our total win rate by cutting out one or two strategies or setups which are dragging down our overall statistics. Even small changes can have a meaningful impact on our overall statistical expectation and thus on our overall profitability.




4. ‘Motivation is the core of management’. Comment. What practical suggestions
would you offer to management to motivate its staff in an industrial
organization?

Motivation in management describes ways in which managers promote productivity in their employees. Learn about this topic, several theories of management, and ways in which this applies to the workplace
Often, people confuse the idea of 'happy' employees with 'motivated' employees. These may be related, but motivation actually describes the level of desire employees feel to perform, regardless of the level of happiness. Employees who are adequately motivated to perform will be more productive, more engaged and feel more invested in their work. When employees feel these things, it helps them, and thereby their managers, be more successful.
It is a manager's job to motivate employees to do their jobs well. So how do managers do this? The answer is motivation in management, the process through which managers encourage employees to be productive and effective.
Think of what you might experience in a retail setting when a motivated cashier is processing your transaction. This type of cashier will:
  • Be friendly, creating a pleasant transaction that makes you more likely to return
  • Process your transaction quickly, meaning that the store can service more customers
  • Suggest an additional item you would like to purchase, increasing sales for the store
In short, this employee is productive and delivers a high-quality output.
The term motivation is derived from the word ‘motive”. The word ‘motive’ as a noun means an objective, as a verb this word means moving into action. Therefore, motives are forces which induce people to act in a way, so as to ensure the fulfillment of a particular human need at a time. Behind every human action there is a motive. Therefore, management must provide motives to people to make them work for the organization.
Motivation is no doubt an essential ingredient of any Organisation. It is the psychological technique which really executes the plans and policies through the efforts of others.
Following are the outstanding Features of the concept of motivation:
1. Motivation is a personal and internal feeling:
Motivation is a psychological phenomenon which generates within an individual.
2. Motivation is need based:
If there are no needs of an individual, the process of motivation fails. It is a behavioural concept that directs human behaviour towards certain goals.
3. Motivation is a continuous process:
Because human wants are unlimited, therefore motivation is an ongoing process.
4. Motivation may be positive or negative:
A positive motivation promotes incentives to people while a negative motivation threatens the enforcement of disincentives.
5. Motivation is a planned process:
People differ in their approach, to respond to the process of motivation; as no two individuals could be motivated in an exactly similar manner. Accordingly, motivation is a psychological concept and a complex process.
Motivation is core because of following key reasons

1. High Efficiency:
A good motivational system releases the immense untapped reservoirs of physical and mental capabilities. A number of studies have shown that motivation plays a crucial role in determining the level of performance. “Poorly motivated people can nullify the soundest organisation.
By satisfying human needs motivation helps in increasing productivity. Better utilisation of resources lowers cost of operations. Motivation is always goal directed. Therefore, higher the level of motivation, greater is the degree of goal accomplishment.
2. Better Image:
A firm that provides opportunities for financial and personal advancement has a better image in the employment market. People prefer to work for an enterprise because of opportunity for development, and sympathetic outlook. This helps in attracting qualified personnel and simplifies the staffing function.
3. Facilitates Change:
Effective motivation helps to overcome resistance to change and negative attitude on the part of employees like restriction of output. Satisfied workers take interest in new organisational goals and are more receptive to changes that management wants to introduce in order to improve efficiency of operations.
4. Human Relations:
Effective motivation creates job satisfaction which results in cordial relations between employer and employees. Industrial disputes, labour absenteeism and turnover are reduced with consequent benefits. Motivation helps to solve the central problem of management, i.e., effective use of human resources. Without motivation the workers may not put their best efforts and may seek satisfaction of their needs outside the organisation.
The success of any organisation depends upon the optimum utilisation of resources. The utilisation of physical resources depends upon the ability to work and the willingness to work of the employees. In practice, ability is not the problem but necessary will to work is lacking. Motivation is the main tool for building such a will. It is for this reason that Rensis Likert said, “Motivation is the core of management.” It is the key to management in action.
Motivation is a very important for an organization because of the following benefits it provides:

  1. Puts human resources into action
Every concern requires physical, financial and human resources to accomplish the goals. It is through motivation that the human resources can be utilized by making full use of it. This can be done by building willingness in employees to work. This will help the enterprise in securing best possible utilization of resources.

  1. Improves level of efficiency of employees
The level of a subordinate or a employee does not only depend upon his qualifications
and abilities. For getting best of his work performance, the gap between ability and willingness has to be filled which helps in improving the level of performance of subordinates. This will result into-
    1. Increase in productivity,
    2. Reducing cost of operations, and
    3. Improving overall efficiency.

  1. Leads to achievement of organizational goals
The goals of an enterprise can be achieved only when the following factors take place :-
    1. There is best possible utilization of resources,
    2. There is a co-operative work environment,
    3. The employees are goal-directed and they act in a purposive manner,
    4. Goals can be achieved if co-ordination and co-operation takes place simultaneously which can be effectively done through motivation.

  1. Builds friendly relationship
Motivation is an important factor which brings employees satisfaction. This can be
done by keeping into mind and framing an incentive plan for the benefit of the
employees. This could initiate the following things:
    1. Monetary and non-monetary incentives,
    2. Promotion opportunities for employees,
    3. Disincentives for inefficient employees.
In order to build a cordial, friendly atmosphere in a concern, the above steps should be taken by a manager. This would help in:
                            iv.            Effective co-operation which brings stability,
                              v.            Industrial dispute and unrest in employees will reduce,
                            vi.            The employees will be adaptable to the changes and there will be no resistance to the change,
                          vii.            This will help in providing a smooth and sound concern in which individual interests will coincide with the organizational interests,
                        viii.            This will result in profit maximization through increased productivity.


                        Leads to stability of work force



Stability of workforce is very important from the point of view of reputation and goodwill of a concern. The employees can remain loyal to the enterprise only when they have a feeling of participation in the management. The skills and efficiency of employees will always be of advantage to employees as well as employees. This will lead to a good public image in the market which will attract competent and qualified people into a concern. As it is said, “Old is gold” which suffices with the role of motivation here, the older the people, more the experience and their adjustment into a concern which can be of benefit to the enterprise.

From the above discussion, we can say that motivation is an internal feeling which can be understood only by manager since he is in close contact with the employees. Needs, wants and desires are inter-related and they are the driving force to act. These needs can be understood by the manager and he can frame motivation plans accordingly. We can say that motivation therefore is a continuous process since motivation process is based on needs which are unlimited. The process has to be continued throughout.
Suggestion for motivate employees are:

1. Meaningful Work

The most important thing any leader can do to create a motivating environment is to make sure the work every member is doing is meaningful. That is, the work is important to the success of the business – every employee feels like what they are doing is making a difference and it’s energizing.
On the other hand, there’s no worse feeling than knowing your work just doesn’t matter. Every leader has some degree of discretion in being able to eliminate or minimize the amount of “” (non-value-added work) that flows into a team.
Any job can be meaningful. I’m sure you’ve heard the story of the two bricklayers; one of them saw his job as stacking bricks. The other saw his mission as building a magnificent cathedral. Same job, different worldview.

2. Hire High Performers and Get Rid of Underperformers

High performers tend to be self-motivated, to begin with. When you create a team of high performers, they feed off of each other. The standards are raised, the energy level increases, teamwork improves, and there’s a low tolerance for anything less than excellence. On the other hand, one or more slackers with bad attitudes can infect a team like cancer, breed resentment, and drag everyone down.

3. Don’t Micromanage – Get out of the Way

No one likes to have his/her manager breathing down his/her neck – in fact, it drives employees crazy. Show your employees that you are interested in what they are doing, but you trust them to make their own decisions and do things differently than you might do them.

4. Promote Your Team’s Accomplishments

As a leader, it’s your job to be your employee’s PR agent. Make sure their good work gets noticed, recognized, and appreciated. Don’t worry about over-promoting your team’s good work – most managers love to get good news. Just make sure the bragging is about them, not about you.

5. Minimize the Rules and Bureaucracy

As long as your team is focusing on what’s really important (see number one, meaningful work), and performing at a high level (see number two), cut them some slack. Don’t hassle them with minutia, give them flexibility in work hours, and protect them from stupid rules.

6. Treat People With Respect

Everyone deserves to be treated with dignity and respect. Yelling, screaming, hurling insults and accusations, and sarcastic comments create an environment of fear and resentment, where employees are motivated to do only enough not to get yelled at, and no more.

7. Get Personal

Get to know your employees as people and learn about their families, their career goals, and truly care about them. I knew a manager who, when one of his employees went above and beyond the call of duty and put in extra hours, would send a hand-written note to the employee’s spouse along with a gift certificate for a night out.
He recognized the effect the job was having on his employee’s home life and wanted to let the spouse know what a great job he was doing and how much he appreciated her support. While that may not be appropriate for everyone, it’s an example of showing your employees you care about their personal lives, not just work.

8. Set a Good Example

Be motivated, enthused, energized, and passionate about your own work and the work of the team.

9. Encourage Camaraderie (During Work Hours)

Take your team to lunch or bring goodies to your team meeting to celebrate milestones, or just to lighten up and have some fun together. Notice I said during work hours. While it’s okay if your employees want to go out for a drink after work or get together on their own time, I don’t believe a leader should intrude on people’s own time in the name of team building.

10. Pay People for What They Are Worth

Yes, compensation is important, but I’ve listed it last. While pay is not a motivator, it can be a de-motivator if people feel they are underpaid. Do everything you can as a leader to fight for well-deserved merit increases, promotions, and bonuses.



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