What factors should be considered in industrial analysis?

 

Subject : Quantitative Techniques

Answer the following question.

Q1. What factors should be considered in industrial analysis? (10

marks)

Q2. Which factors influence operating environment? (10

marks)

Case Studies

Case (20

Marks)

Since 9/11•terrorism has cased threat attacks which have drawn the attention of political and media world. The US h

to launch. a 'war on terror' and applied a range of counteract terrorism safety measures towards aviation, pub

transportation, ports, borders, public Hermie places, etc. While these steps may show cheap course of act!on

government and security services, it is quite expensive. According to the calculations done by Mueller and Stewa

(2011), the expenditure of US homeland and security has gone over 1.1 trillion dollars, which includes federal, state a

domestic government, and private sector, and also the cost of opportunity. The Iraq an Afghanistan wars have added 1

trillion dollars to this expenditure. The expenditure of federal, state and local US government on home ground secur

has been estimated to 75 billion dollars more than the last levels of 2001. It is seen that US is not the only country to

in these high level of expenses, even though no other country can match its per capita or GDP expenditure. F

example, increased expenditure• on homeland security in UK, Canada and Australia is nearly one half to one quarter

US expenditure per capita or GDP. Nevertheless, in 2009, the government spent nearly 141.6 billion dollars each ye

on homeland security. This figure is expected to reach about 300 billion dollars by 2016. After 9/11, the main objecti

has been to prevent or alleviate any harm or casualty as a result of terrorism. The main issue is, if this expenditure

counteracting terrorism been invest.ed in a way that has increased the cost of security of the public efficiently or no

Hence, the commission report of 9/11, among other issues, was called upon • the US government to execute safe

measures which show evaluation of risks and effectiveness of expenditure. Nevertheless, while the US needs t

evaluate expenditure benefits for government regulations, such evaluation seems co have not been done for homela

security in general, or for the DHS (department of homeland security). One of the causes could be that DHS is not ab

to take up such evaluation. The NRC (national research council) committee of the National Academics of Science

Engineering and Medicine, made a request through S Congress to evaluate the functions of DHS, which was working

the project for almost 2 years, came up with some surprising result-. Besides e'•aluation of natural disasters, t

committee 'did not find any DHS risk analysis capabilities and methods that are yet adequate for supporting DH

decision making.' Due to which, very less confidence could be had in most of the risk evaluation done by DHS. T

committee said that "it is not yet clear that DHS is on a I ! trajectory for development of methods and capability that

sufficient to ensure reliable risk analyses". usually the government and their rigid agencies shoo a neutral behav

towards their decision making. Stewart says that "the standard criterion for deciding whether a government; programm

can be justified on economic principles is net present value - the discounted monetized value of expected net benef

7/21/2020 Exam Paper

https://www.istm.org.in/examsoft/exampaper_final.php?id=23094 2/3

(i.e., benefits minus costs)" and that "expected values (an unbiased estimate) is the appropriate estimate for use" (UM

1992).

Answer the following question.

Q1.

What are the reasons that show that DHS is incapable in evaluating the risks of national security?

(Hint: while the US needs to evaluate expenditure benefits for government regulations, such evaluation

seem to have not been done for homeland security in general, DHS is not able to take up such

evaluation.)

Q2. The government spent nearly 141.6 billion dollars each year on (Hint: homeland security)

Case (20

Marks)

Restaurants can avoid losing customers because of long waiting queues. Some restaurants have chairs to he

customers sit and wait, which they put on the safe side, and remove the chairs as time goes on. Nevertheless, putti

waiting chair is not the only/' solution when the customers would go back and prefer-going to another place, there ls

need to improve the service time-. The restaurant management needs to understand the situation in a better w

through numerical model. A data was taken from a restaurant in Jakarta. Little's Theorem and M/Ml queuing model w

used to get the ration of arrival, service, utilization, waiting time and likelihood of probable customers. At Sushi Tei, t

customers' arrival rate during the busiest time of the day is 2.22 customers/minute (cpm), while the service is 2.24 cp

The average number of customers is 1.22 and that of utilization period is 0.991. The study of queuing or waiting lines

called the Queuing Theory. The evaluation taken after using the Queuing Theory includes - expected waiting time in lin

average time in the system, length of the line, anticipated number of customers being served at one time, possibility

customers that cringe, and the possibility of the system in some states, like unoccupied or occupied. This data w

taken after the interviewing the restaurant manager of Sushi Tei, and the data collected through the observations at t

restaurant. The rate of visiting customers was taken from the restaurant. The restaurant used to keep a record of

everyday routine work. The manager of the restaurant was interviewed to find about the capacity of the restaura

number of waiters and waitresses working there, and also the number of cooks. It was observed that the M/M

operation was best suited for the queuing model of the restaurant. This shows , that the time of arrival and service a

distributed proportionately. The system .of the restaurant contained only one server. It was observed that, though the

were a number of waitresses in the restaurant, only one cook was there to serve all the customers. According to t

analysis done on the functioning of the restaurant, on an average each customer would spend 55 minutes, the length

the queue is approx. 36 customers, and the waiting time rs approx;. 15 i ! minutes on average. It is seen that the waiti

time is not different from the theoretical waiting time. it is assumed that the possible customers will begin to withdraw o

seeing more than 10 people ahead of them in the queue. It is also observed that, on average, the customer can on

tolerate 40 people in the queue. Since the capacity of the restaurant is for 120 customers when fully occupied, t

possibility of 10 customers in a queue can be calculated as against 130 in the system, i.e., 120 occupants in t

restaurant and 10 or more waiting in the queue. A simulation model will be developed for the restaurant. Through th

simulation, the analytical model results can be attained. Also, the simulation model will help in adding more difficulty

the model can reflect the exact operation of the restaurant more personally.

Answer the following question.

Q1.

What are the reasons that show that DHS is incapable in evaluating the risks of national security?

(Hint: while the CS needs to evaluate expenditure benefits• for government regulations, such

evaluation seem to have not been done for homeland security in general, DHS is not able to take up

such evaluation.)

Q2. The government spent nearly 141.6 billion dollars each year on Hint: homeland security)

Multi Criteria decision making (20

Marks)

MCDA. (multi criteria decision analysis) is considered to be one of the fastest growing research operations in the la

several years. The researcher focus towards MCDA led to development of many different pproaches and ways in t

field. There are two types of procedures: theoretical assumptions and decision addressed type. This difference throw

challenges to the prcedure of choosing the most ideal method for the decision making problem. Most of the time, t

initial approach towards applying MCDA in the real world problems relates to the set up of simple understanding Of t

context and recognizing the problem of decision. This step includes the ones• who make decisions and other importa

participants who make important contributions for the MCDA procedure by sharing their knowledge. The common insig

of the decision framework is received by knowing the goals of the decision making body and recognizing not only tho

people who make decisions but also those who face the decision. • Dooley (2009) says that the first three steps take

more time in the process of MCDA, particularly because of their qualitative features. Assigning of comparative significa

weights to the selected criteria is the next step: These weights can be ascertained directly, for example ranking, swin

7/21/2020 Exam Paper

https://www.istm.org.in/examsoft/exampaper_final.php?id=23094 3/3

trade off; or indirectly, for example- centrality, regression and interactive. Later, the DM has to give individual score

considering his or her views, to each of the recognized options according to the criteria which seem vital. These scor

show the decision of DM . related to spreading of each substitute to every performance standard. The information whi

is attained is maintained distinctively into performance template, which is also as consequence matrix, options matrix,

just decision table. \ . ' I The next process includes abstract of the information consisting of the performance matrix in t

form of multi criteria scores, for every possible plan. Mostly, this is attained by combining the individual scores of mat

so that total valuation of .each substitute which allows more comparison. The groups of substitut<:s ar<: ranked on t

basis of all these scores. Finally, the procedure can include a warm evaluation of the outcome to amendments in t

scores or criteria, to conclude the sturdiness of the result of MCDA. At the end, the analysis and trade offs included

the respective choices are given to and conferred with the DM. In many cases, the ultimate decision that DM takes, do

not match with the highest level of alterative, as they are more focused towards the process of knowing the effect

each and every factor in ranking of choices than in the exactness of the ranking. Also, it should be observed that t

generalizations are not used to of the outcome given by the process of MCDA, and they only appropriate for the group

choices which were assessed.

Answer the following question.

Q1.

What role does MCDA play in decision making? (Hint: MCDA is considered to be one of the fastest

growing research operations, these scores show the decision of DM related to spreading of each

substitute to every performance standard)

Q2. What does MCDA stand for? (Hint: multi criteria decision analysis)

Print Question with PDF